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Sunday, February 13, 2011

Academy Award Predictions

I'm only predicting the categories I know well and care about, also known as, the only categories anyone cares about.
Legend:
italicized nominees = The one I believe will win
Bolded nominees= The one I want to win
Underlined nominees = The Dark Horse

Best Actress
Annette Benning "The Kids Are all Right"
Nicole Kidman "Rabbit Hole"
Jennifer Lawrence "Winter's Bone"
Natalie Portman "Black Swan"
Michelle Williams "Blue Valentine
-----Natalie Portman was incredible and had the biggest challenge in this role than any other actress.  She completely deserves this no matter what the Blue Valentine hipsters say.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams "The Fighter"
Helena Bonham Carter "The King's Speech"
Hailee Steinfeld "True Grit"
Melissa Leo "The Fighter"
Jacki Weaver "Animal Kingdom"
-------I want Hailee Steinfeld to win this so bad.  She shouldn't even be nominated for supporting because she was the lead of that film.  She performed just as well as Jeff Bridges if not better.  But the Academy will give this to Helena Bonham Carter.  Just watch.

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale "The Fighter"
John Hawkes "Winter's Bone"
Jeremy Renner "The Town"
Mark Ruffalo "The Kids Are All Right"
Geoffery Rush "The King's Speech"
-------As great as Geoffery Rush was, I just don't see him beating the perennially show stealing Christian Bale.

Best Actor
Javier Bardem "Biutiful"
Colin Firth "The King's Speech"
Jeff Bridges "True Grit"
Jesse Eisenberg "The Social Network"
James Franco "127 Hours"
------Colin Firth was phenomenal and he had the greatest challenge.  Don't count out Hollywood's (and New York's) lovechild James Franco though.

Best Animated
Toy Story 3
The Illusionist
How To Train Your Dragon
------As great as Toy Story 3 was, The New York Film Critic's Circle awarded this prize to The Illusionist, that's why it's my dark horse.  But since Toy Story 3 probably won't win the best picture, it will win this.

Best Cinematography
Black Swan
True Grit
The Social Network
The King's Speech
Inception
------Black Swan will win this.  Aronofsky made ballet cool, that's hard to do.


Directing
Daren Aronofsky "Black Swan"
David O. Russell "The Fighter"
Tom Hooper "The King's Speech"
David Fincher "The Social Network"
The Coen Brothers "True Grit"
------David Fincher completely deserves this.  Tom Hooper did an incredible job telling a very personal, very specific, and very small story set into the context a very huge, world changing story.  The great feat here is that we were fully engaged in both and were rooting for a jerkish, spoiled, yet very human man who didn't believe he was fit to be king.

Music (Original Score)
How To Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
-----The only reason I chose any of these was because Daft Punk got snubbed.  Daft Punk wins.


Visual Effects
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Alice in Wonderland
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2
------A city folded on top of itself. Is that not enough to win the award?

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
------Aaron Sorkin wrote a monument to screenwriting with Social Network.  Don't be surprised if True Grit wins because that was also an ambitious project.  The reason I want Toy Story 3 is because we all became emotionally attached to pieces of plastic.  Yes, we have known them since 1996 but the characters developed so much in the last piece it's hard to discount Toy Story 3 for the award.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
-----King's Speech will probably win given it's a strong story and really strong, succinct, and interesting dialogue, but no movie was as ambitious or original as Inception.  I would rather see Inception win just because we were pulled into a separate world (and various worlds within that world, and the other worlds could affect what happened in the worlds above and below it. Even though that should be bewildering, we all understood it, and that's proof enough the script was fully realized).

Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
----I do have 3 dark horse choices in this one.  This category is really tough to call given the quality, originality, and diversity of the films nominated.  The Social Network was phenomenal and it's a good pick considering most of the time the movie with the best director also gets the best picture nod.  The reason I both want Toy Story 3 and why I believe it is a dark horse is for the same reason Lord of the Rings: Return of the King won.  It's both a stellar movie and a lifetime achievement award and is more in recognition of the whole series than just the one film.  Don't be surprised if the Academy awards Inception either, they have been known to recognize the most ambitious and epic films before i.e. Slumdog Millionaire.



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